Cold Deserts Warm Deserts and Madrean Archipelago Mediterranean California Everglades Mixed Wood Shield Atlantic Shield Western Cordillera and Upper Gila Mountains Marine West Coast Forests Mixed Wood Plains Central USA Plains Southeastern USA Plains Ozark Ouachita-Appalachian Forests Mississippi Alluvial and Southeast Coastal Plain Temperate Prairies West-Central Semi-Arid Prairies South-Central Prairies and Southern Texas Plains

The dynamic global vegetation model MC2 was run over the conterminous United States at 30 arc seconds to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3 GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment.

MC2 Vegetation was modelled in 3 stages. First, Potential Natural Vegetation dynamics are simulated assuming no human impacts (PNV model). Then fire suppression as the only land-use practice was added (PNV + FS model). Finally, a simple protocol to evaluate the relative influence of forest and crop harvest, as well as urbanization was added. (PNV + FS + LU)

The results you see here are for the PNV + FS + LU model run in conjunction with the CGCM3 GCM climate model. All 3 emission scenarios are available for review. The chart shows the change in percent area of each ecoregion for each vegetation type over the year range 2010-2050.

Projected Vegetation Area Change between 2010-2050
[Model: PNV + FS + LU and GCM: CGCM3]
Vegetation Class Area in 2010 (km2) Area in 2050 (km2) Change in %